Lamb prices have been above last year's levels for all of 2024 so far, with the latest average deadweight price at 667p/kg, according to the AHDB, which is 16.2% or 93p/kg above last year. At the peak of the market this year, prices were just short of 900p/kg, more than 150p/kg more than last year.
Reduced production has been a key factor. In the first seven months of the year the number of UK sheep and lambs slaughtered was down 9.1% to 7.108 million head, according to Defra, with a 3.3% drop in July numbers. Lamb and mutton production in the seven months was 8.4% lower.
Sheep meat
Stronger sheep meat consumption is providing support, with retail sales up 4.0% up volume in the 12 months to July 7, according to Kantar figures, while the value of purchases was 6% higher. Religious festivals have also boosted demand, with key dates coinciding earlier this year.
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Greater sales at home and reduced production have reduced exports, with 40,100t of sheep meat and offal shipped during the first half of 2024, a drop of 7.5% on last year. Imports have also increased, standing at 38,400t in the first six months of the year.
Hannah Clarke, senior red meat analyst at the AHDB, said: "The reduced UK numbers are partly due to the poor weather throughout the spring, but also likely influenced by ongoing profitability and disease challenges."
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She expected an increase in slaughter in the second half of the year, with a 1% increase in clean sheep slaughter to 3.3 million head. That would take total clean sheep production to 11.8m head during 2024, down 400,000 or 3.3% on 2023. Total sheep meat production is forecast to fall by 2.9% to 278,000t.
Lamb production
These forecasts assume a minimal impact from the sheep diseases Bluetongue and Schmallenberg. That is the case on mainland Europe, where the EU estimates sheep meat output in the first five months of the year was at 162,000t, down 7.4% on the same period last year.
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Production in New Zealand (the largest single supplier to the UK) has been more robust. In the 42 weeks to July 20, lamb output was up 5.6% to 16.225m head, with a 3.8% decline in mutton slaughter to 2.918m head. However, more recently New Zealand lamb numbers have tightened, as the season draws to a close.
